However, Italian manufacturing output in 2016, net of the sale of imported goods, is expected to post a marked recovery by rising 1.2%, compared to a 3.5% shortfall in 2015.Over the same period, Italian export sales are forecast to grow by 1.9%, for a value of nearly €5.8 billion. This increase is lower than the 2.3% rise recorded in 2015, chiefly owing to the performance in emerging countries, as well as to the weaker-than-expected trend of USA domestic demand.

Imports on the other hand are forecast to buck the trend and fall by 0.5%, for a total value just below the €4 billion mark.Geographically, exports and imports to/from the EU are both reportedly growing (+3.9%), while conversely the business with non-EU countries is expected to decline by 0.9% in both directions.In Europe, the best revenue performances are expected to come from Germany (+7.1%), the UK (+7.7%), Spain (+13.5%) and Austria (+5.5%). France on the other hand, despite being once again Italian menswear’s foremost market, accounting for 9.9% of worldwide revenue, is expected to decrease by 2%.Outside the EU, the US is set to slide again into third position overall, by losing 10% compared to 2015, after the first nine months of that year recorded a remarkable 16.2% increase. Asia on the other hand is very dynamic: Hong Kong and Japan are expected to grow by 14.6% and 11.3% respectively, with China up 5.6% and South Korea by 1.8% only. Menswear exports to Russia are instead declining, with an expected 0.8% shortfall.    According to a sample survey by SMI, 2017 began weakly for Italian menswear: initial Spring/Summer 2017 orders are down both domestically (-4.3%) and internationally (-3.4%). Despite this, the companies within the SMI panel display a cautious optimism for 2017: 86% of them expect a “stable” economic situation compared to 2016, while the remaining 14% hope for an improved market performance.